Standing on the start line of the Western States 100 at age 67, I was not worried about course or age group records. However, I was concerned that while 78% of starters now finish the race, only 24% of runners over 65 cross the finish line.
For 51 years, Western States has taken runners on a historic journey from the often snow-covered alpine meadows of Olympic Valley to the urban Placer High track in Auburn. This year’s race was exceptional, and even though the overall course records barely remained intact, there were four new age-group records including John Tidd’s time of 20:16 for 60-69 males, which broke a 20-year-old record. Examination of the all-time age-group records (Figure 1) shows numerous amazing performances, from Courtney Dauwalter’s 15:29 and Jim Walmsley’s 14:09 course records, to 70-year-old Gunhild Swanson’s 29:59:54 in 2015. The unofficial 65-69 age group records by ultrarunning legends Helen Klein and Ray Piva have been added for fun, because Piva ran an incredible silver buckle race in 1988 with a time of 23:30 at age 67. Scott Mills won’t mind me pointing out that his time of 28:03 is as close as anyone over 65 has ever come to Piva’s course record. My times were much slower.
Looking at the figure in detail, clearly the decline in speed accelerates quickly with age. In addition, female times are about 7% slower than males across all age groups. The intimidating aspect of this difference when it comes to Western States is that the 30-hour-cutoff is not gender specific, putting older females at a distinct disadvantage. For a 30-hour race, a 7% difference translates to 2 hours. In fact, thanks to 65-year-old Iris Cooper’s finish this year, she joined Swanson and Klein as the only women over age 65 who have ever finished. By contrast, there have been 53 male finishes by 45 individuals in this age range, although unfortunately, there are far fewer females running Western States.
Instead of looking at just individuals, let’s compare the finish rates for groups of runners: the percentage of starters who finish the race within the allotted 30 hours. The finish rate for all runners is increasing over time (Figure 2). People have speculated on why this is happening with some favoring new concepts in footwear and nutrition, while others think that unlikely lottery odds mean that reaching the finish is more imperative. Interestingly, finish rates for older runners have not improved as much as the average runner.
The finish rates by age group (Figure 3) show some surprising data. While 60-64-year-olds still finish at a rate around 60%, only 33% of those 65-69 finish, and less than 10% of those are over age 70. The fall off with age is dramatic.
Since ultrarunning and Western States data becomes less available the further we go back in time, and aggregating data for all starters is an onerous task, only the 82 starts by 57 different runners over the age of 65 between 2009 – 2024 have been compiled. Below, Table 1 shows the 34 types of data collected from Ultrasignup.com and Western States (wser.org) databases for these runners. These 3,000 pieces of data were used to construct a statistical model which shows the historical factors that are the most important in determining whether a runner finishes (Figure 4). Using just five of these 34 factors, whether a starter will finish can be predicted with a (startling) 90% accuracy.
Of course, we are not just products of our history as this model suggests. Many critical training and race-day parameters are not considered. One possible reason that this model works so well without those other factors is that these older runners are almost all quite experienced. The average runner in the model has finished 83 ultras, including 18 100-milers with five finishes at Western States. We know how to train and race, so maybe race-day variation is not as relevant for less experienced runners.
What the data shows is that retaining speed is critical to performance. This means that training involving higher-paced sessions such as stride and tempo runs are very important. Age-related muscle loss (sarcopenia) is a reason to do both speed and strength work. Track work may have too much injury risk, and injury recovery takes much longer the older we get. When people ask how I’ve been able to do 100-milers for so long, my answer is by avoiding injury. To get back to previous levels of fitness after a serious injury is nearly impossible after age 65.
A surprising second finding from this study was that a 100-miler qualifying race is better than shorter distances. Until 2014, 50-mile runs were allowed as Western States qualifiers and finish rates have improved now that distances of 100k and longer are required. Finish rates could likely be further improved by requiring 100-mile qualifiers. Although not analyzed here, other changes the race could make that might improve finish rates for older runners would be to allow an early start or the use of poles or pacers early on once runners leave the constraint of the Granite Chief Wilderness beyond mile 11.
Experienced runners know that Western States times can be improved from running fast downhills, spending less time in aid stations and managing nutrition, hydration, electrolytes and cooling. But prior to race day, participating in long races and implementing speedwork into training are both critical. Since this popular race is now becoming a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, we all need to scientifically optimize everything possible to achieve that rare joyous finish.
Ken Ward is an analytical chemist from Corvallis, Oregon, who finished his tenth Western States at age 67 this year. He’s been the RD for the McDonald Forest 50k, and finished over 120 ultras including 46 100-milers. This work was presented at the Western States Health and Medical Research Conference in Auburn in May. Many thanks to Gabriela Rosales for statistics consulting, and to MDs Andy Pasternak and John Anderson for their encouragement and enthusiasm.
REFERENCES:
Ultrasignup.com
WSER.org