This article was originally published in the April/May 2025 issue of UltraRunning Magazine. Subscribe today for similar features on ultra training, racing and more.
With all the backcountry skiing I’ve done, I finally took an Avalanche Level 1 course, and it got me thinking about trail running. There are similarities and differences in the risks we take while in the backcountry, but throughout the course, we discussed minimizing our risk to being caught in an avalanche by considering three factors that increase risk: hazards, exposure and our vulnerability (consequences). And I wondered, what can we take away from applying those same principles to trail running?
When we think of the term “risk” when associated with trail running, we don’t usually group it into the same category with other outdoor sports that include high consequences and risk, and rightly so (think rock climbing, motocross, skydiving, etc.). Most of our outings end with us making it back home safely without ever entering a high-consequence situation, but nonetheless, freak accidents happen, we don’t adequately prepare or we don’t make good decisions. Lucky for trail runners, the dangerous situations that exist in the backcountry can usually be prodded and tested through gradual exploration rather than a sudden end of life event like an avalanche. However, getting in over one’s head is still possible, and the consequences can be life threatening if you don’t have the skills or gear to handle a dangerous situation.
Case Study
I was headed deep into Washington’s Olympic Mountains, up onto a ridgeline, trying to make a loop via a ridge with no trail. Using satellite imagery, I was unable to tell if it went all the way through, so I made sure to bring my cell phone and a first aid kit, and I let my wife know where I was headed. About 1 mile down, there was a fork in the trail, with one path leading up to the ridge I was hoping to run and the other way headed to a log bridge that crossed a creek. It was a beautiful spot, and I decided to check out the log bridge before heading up. I walked across, checked out the creek running through it, then proceeded back across. As I took in the views of the forest, my foot missed the deck of the bridge. This was a typical Forest Service log bridge with railing on one side…not the side where my foot slipped. It was a good 10 feet down to the boulder creek bottom below, and I didn’t want to jump down, so I quickly swung my body back onto the bridge. Now, imagine landing on a log, body on one side, arms over the top and hanging on. You know what happens? You slide off and fall backward. And that’s exactly what happened. I fell off the bridge onto the rocks. One got me just under the ribs and one narrowly missed my head. In a bit of shock, I jumped out of the freezing water (it was only about 3 inches deep), rolled onto the bank and, like they do in the movies, started checking myself to see what was broken.
Miraculously, I was bruised up, but nothing was broken. It felt like I’d been kicked in the kidneys (but I wasn’t peeing blood yet) and punched in the face (turned out when I landed on the bridge my face also hit the bridge, hard), and I was bleeding. I was only 1 mile into my run, and I really wanted to see that ridgeline, so I took a Tylenol for my back and finished a 5-hour adventure. That might have been the first time I’ve used my first aid kit on myself, and I was sure glad I had it. This was an incident that could have turned out much worse, and I often think of the consequences, had I been further out or if my fall into the creek had resulted in an unconscious head injury or broken bones.
So, I ask you, what did I do right? What did I do wrong? What were the hazards, the exposure and my vulnerability?
Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability = Risk
Most of the time we mitigate our risk simply through experience. We’ve done something long enough that we subconsciously analyze the factors in the above equation. For beginners, it can help to go through and verbalize each factor so they to know what to look for and pay attention to. This helps us learn and not get in over our heads.
We experience hazards all the time when we’re out on a run—rocks, roots, heat, cold, cliffs, wildlife, etc. We don’t even think about most of these—we avoid them or dress appropriately for the weather. Unconsciously, we try to avoid rocks, not to fall into cold water and stay on the top of log bridges. Most hazards are avoidable just by paying attention to our surroundings. However, sometimes, as in my case, our judgement lapses or we just don’t see that ankle breaker. We can reduce our risk by not running down a rocky trail, but what fun is that? You’re better off just trying to pick up your feet.
Exposure is a little trickier and requires more forethought to reduce the risk of something bad happening. Think of it as time—the time it takes for you to overheat, become hypothermic, get back to your car or reach safety if you become injured. For this kind of scenario, we prepare by thinking through what we might experience while out on an adventure. This may seem pretty straightforward, but I know even the most experienced athletes have gotten into a pickle because they missed something during their exposure assessment. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gone out for a run during one of the first hot days in early summer and thought to myself, “I’m just getting a short run in that I’ve done a million times—I don’t need water,” and then, 10 miles in, I’m drinking out of an irrigation canal wondering how many days until the giardia kicks in.
Vulnerability is closely linked to consequences. In avalanche education, they replace consequences with vulnerability to explain how susceptible you are to the impact of an avalanche. A party with avalanche equipment (beacon, shovel and probe) are less vulnerable should they get caught in an avalanche because they have the tools to rescue.
I like the term “vulnerability” when used in trail running because if we have the right tools, the consequences can be lowered significantly. When we’re thoughtful about how we move down the trail, over the mountains or through the forest, we’re able to reduce our vulnerability by choosing the right tools to reduce the consequences when something does happen.
For example, take something as simple as catching a toe on a rock and going down. Oh, but wait, the hazard was that you flew into jagged limestone and sliced your forearm really deep. The consequence of that fall is high, because you’re likely to bleed out. But with the right tools: first aid kit with a clotting sponge, duct tape and someone with a wilderness first aid background, you have just reduced your vulnerability to a catastrophic accident.
I’m constantly thinking through worst-case scenarios out in the mountains and going through the exercise of “what if?” What if I break a leg? What would I do with no cell service? What will most likely happen if I slip and fall? What would I do first if I thought I was lost?
I will be the first one to tell you that I am not always the most responsible at reducing my risk. I am, however, always trying to be better. I gain knowledge through taking wilderness first aid classes to accompany my 35 years of experience of running through the woods. I take a first aid kit with me when my exposure is increased on longer runs, and I always try to let someone know where I’m going when I know I won’t be around other people.
As a beginning trail runner, it’s important to recognize the potential for something bad to happen and mitigate that risk through intelligent planning and preparation. You cannot rely on luck. Some have had ample hiking experience which gives them the necessary tools to recreate as a runner in the backcountry. Others come from a purely urban road running background and need to seek out “classroom” advice. If that’s the case, it’s best to gently prod around those risk factors by staying in your comfort zone with a backup plan if things go sideways.
More experienced friends can offer a huge learning opportunity for those with less experience. Advice I always give my students when I’m teaching wilderness running skills is that we always need to be aware of the skill level of those we are with. Sometimes the more experienced person needs to come down to their buddy’s level to teach them new skills, and if you are inexperienced, it’s really helpful to go out with someone who’s at a higher level to learn something new.
We talk about risk and consequences not to scare you about running through the wilderness but rather, to give you the knowledge you need to get yourself back to your car if something goes wrong. Trail running should push your boundaries because each time it does, you gain a little more experience. And after all, it’s that special experience of running through the natural world that we’re all seeking.